The Evolving Landscape of Global Soybean Trade: A Review of Market Dynamics and Sustainability Challenges

Abstract

Between 2015 and 2025, the global soybean trade has experienced a major structural shift, marked by the growing export dominance of South America, particularly Brazil, alongside the rise of new geopolitical and environmental risks. This literature review draws on findings from 550 unique scholarly publications to analyze market trends, sustainability pressures, and technological advancements that are reshaping modern supply chains. The review highlights the far-reaching effects of the US-China trade war, most notably a roughly 70% drop in US soybean exports to China and a significant redistribution of market share toward Brazilian producers. By 2023, Brazil's soybean exports had climbed to around 102 million tonnes (approximately 3,744 million bushels), underscoring both the country's competitive strengths and the ripple effects of trade policy disruptions. From an environmental standpoint, soybean cultivation across South America more than doubled in area between 2000 and 2019, expanding to 55.1 million hectares and placing considerable strain on the Amazon and Cerrado biomes. Although the Soy Moratorium helped reduce direct deforestation in the Amazon by 57%, the Cerrado continues to lack adequate protection, and projections under a business-as-usual scenario point to ongoing forest loss and significant carbon emissions. On the technological front, innovations such as blockchain-enabled traceability, precision agriculture, and machine learning present promising opportunities to improve supply chain transparency and resilience. Blockchain pilot programs indicate that verified sustainability credentials could command a valuation premium of up to 15%. The review also identifies several key gaps in the existing research, including the long-term effects of climate extremes experienced in 2024–2025 on trade routes, insufficient post-2015 land-use data for Argentina, and the obstacles smallholder farmers face in adopting new technologies. Collectively, these findings underscore the pressing need for coordinated, multi-stakeholder action to safeguard the long-term sustainability and resilience of global soybean supply chains.