Analysis of Economic Risks in Sow Production

Abstract

We prepared a model farm based on the data of a young pig production farm which has 1300 breeding sows in order to examine the main risk factors affecting the profitability of young pig production. Farrowing and mortality rates, as well as cost and price data were recorded as the inputs for the model used. Revenue of the farm, total costs, total income and the prime cost of young pig production were used as outputs. Monte-Carlo simulation was used in the model for risk assessment. Based on the results of the analysis, we concluded that the total income was most affected by the number of piglets per litter (ß=0.691), the total farm costs were most influenced by the indexes related to piglet output (number of piglets per litter: ß=0.455, price of piglet feed: ß=0.443, and feed consumption of piglet: ß=0.364) while the change of the total income of the farm was most determined by young pig price (ß=0.578).