A case study of crop structure modelling and decision risks managing by using a stochastic programming model

Sándor Kovács, Margit Csipkés

Abstract


We built up a stochastic linear programming crop structure model. We assume the sale prices as well as the yields of the cultivation sectors as stochastic variables and the variables of cost data calculations as deterministic. A farm operating in the Löszhát in Hajdúság provided the data for resources and cultivation technologies. For searching the optimal risk management variety we performed Monte Carlo simulations by using Risk Optimizer 4.5 software. Values of the goal functions were analyzed by statistically. In terms of the measurement of risks we provide different decision alternatives for the crop structure. Evaluating the results of the simulation runs decision makers could choose from alternatives that most suit their risk attitudes.

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DOI: 10.17700/jai.2010.1.1.10

Journal of Agricultural Informatics